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This won’t be hidden behind any paywall.The analysis in this

Postautor: panxing18 » 05 lis 2018, 02:28

Stampede Blue PPR Fantasy Football Draft Guide 2018 No worries , friends. be more of a broad approach to crushing your draft that takes place later this week or next. You know, the one you’ve yet to accept the invite to? I’m looking at you, Kyle.If you’ve never drafted before, lemme help you out. Don’t use the default draft rankings on whatever client you’re going to use to draft! If you are going to use them, edit them and give your absentee self a chance! I can show you why you should do this if you simply log into your draft that has yet to happen. On your team’s page is a link that says something like “edit pre-draft player rankings”. Click on that. It’ll take you to a page that looks like this. My team name is rad. I know.If you click on an individual position, one of the things I’d like you to do is look at the far right column. That column is that players’ expected point total this season. For the most part, if you look at the expected points and the rankings, they appear to line up at the top of each position. Beyond the top five players or so, though, there is a significant difference between a player’s ranking versus their projected totals and I think it’s set up this way to foil auto-drafters.A lot of people don’t use anything but the default rankings anyway. You should edit these so you don’t have to use anything else and give yourself a leg up on your cohorts!TLDR: EDIT YOUR PRE-DRAFT RANKINGS!Successful fantasy teams are deep and don’t crumble to a single player getting injured, much like actual NFL teams. Isn’t that interesting? That said, most people are in the weeds from the 4th round on in drafts I’ve done so far, and that’s partially because we’re only halfway through preseason by the time you read this. I’ve reordered the ESPN default rankings and I have another tool I use, ( ) to make drafting easier.I’ve done 9 drafts so far (actual leagues) and have varied between 8/10/12 man leagues.Let’s look at the first 10 players being drafted the most often in PPR leagues so far this year according to FantasyPros.Todd Gurley - LAR - RBLe’Veon Bell - PIT - RBDavid Johnson - ARI - RBEzekiel Elliott - DAL - RBAntonio Brown - PIT - WRAlvin Kamara - NO - RBSaquon Barkley - NYG - RBDeAndre Hopkins - HOU - WROdell Beckham, Jr. - NYG - WRJulio Jones - ATL - WRThere are 6 running backs and 4 wide receivers being taken in the first ten picks of the average PPR draft. Notice how there are no QBs taken in the Top 10? There’s a reason for that. Outside of Brady and Rodgers, which you’d have to sacrifice a pick that should have gone to your RB/WR corp, the point disparity between the 3rd ranked QB and the 17th ranked QB over the entire season is less than 20 points, or just over 1 point per week. You say, “I don’t understand big words, Jared. In fact, you’re making me nervous.” Here’s your big bolded command:DO NOT DRAFT A QUARTERBACK IN THE FIRST SEVEN ROUNDS IF YOU WANT TO WIN YOUR LEAGUE UNLESS YOUR MOST UP TO DATE DRAFT SHEET SHOWS THAT BRADY/RODGERS FELL TO YOU AND IN THAT CASE, SNAP OUT OF IT. YOU’RE DREAMING. QB2 BRADY (RANKED 55TH) AND QB1 RODGERS (RANKED 42ND) WILL BOTH GO TOP 30 AND YOU AREN’T FOLLOWING THAT UP WITH A QB PICK TOO. YOU ARE NOT A LEMMING!Based on this Jabaal Sheard Jersey , we can say that we are very likely to take a running back with our first round pick unless a minimum of Le’Veon Bell, Todd Gurley, David Johnson, and Ezekiel Elliott (in any order, roughly speaking) are off the board. If you aren’t taking Zeke with the 4th pick, Antonio Brown is the only WR coming off the board in the first five picks that I won’t mock you for taking. I’ve been told to give analysis.After the first five picks, there is a 60% chance you take the best WR left rather than the 5th or 6th overall RB (Kamara and Barkley, respectively). Does that make sense? You don’t have to do that. A lot of people that play competitive fantasy football live by “RB in Round 1 or bust”. I disagree. My draft earlier today, for example, I took DeAndre Hopkins (WR2) 9th in a 10-man PPR draft. I scooped Melvin Gordon (RB7) Round 2 and ran away with the draft from there, but you get my point. You can absolutely take one of the marquee WRs with your first round pick and still have a strong roster.To summarize:Our first round rule is RB unless you’re taking Brown 4th or later, then it’s a coin-flip the rest of the round. You can’t miss with any guy ranked 6-10 with picks 6-10. Miss me with that “who should I take 7th” question. You have to be in the moment and look at the information you have available to you at that time. Best player available? Probably a RB?YOU ARE WASTING YOUR TIME WITH DRAFT SHEETS BECAUSE THERE ARE A MILLION OF THEM AND THEY SHOULD CHANGE DAILY BECAUSE THIS IS A VIOLENT SPORT AND PLAYERS GET HURT EVERY DAY. IF YOUR DRAFT SHEET CAME OUT IN JULY OR EARLY AUGUST (ESPN, I’m looking at you), THEN YOU’RE LIKELY GOING TO DRAFT WITH AN OUTDATED DRAFT SHEET.You don’t need sheets or lists to pore over. There are so many sheets out there. Seriously, Google “Fantasy Football PPR Draft Sheet”. You can sift for days. Most of the draft sheets available to us are not updated regularly.As a general rule that no one follows, DON’T DRAFT A K OR D/ST UNLESS YOU HAVE NO INTENTIONS OF WINNING YOUR LEAGUE AND INTEND TO SURVIVE SIMPLY AS A MEME. Any draft I’ve ever done, someone always takes a defense in like the 6th round. I am free to assume (given the depth available at WR/RB) if you take a defense in the middle of a draft that you aren’t a football fan. This means you have run out of names of players you know and have moved on to team names. Your K and D/ST score as many points as your 4th or 5th RB/WR per annum and we have to consider injuries to your starters. During your season, look at the projected points for your K/D/ST and then look at your FLEX spot. If your K or D/ST is projected to outscore your FLEX player, you’ve made mistakes during your draft that you can avoid this year.It starts with understanding that we are going to draft 1QB, 1TE, 1K, 1D/ST and we need multiple WR and RB per week to be competitive. We need more options as the season goes by and we need to prioritize depth at those positions and worry less about our TE/QB situation during the draft for the simple reason that if you look at projected fantasy points for QBs using the default rankings Authentic Margus Hunt Jersey , Alex Smith (WAS - QB) is projected to score 288 points this year. He’s being drafted outside of the Top 15 QBs (basically he isn’t being drafted at all), and if you sort the QB rankings by projected points, 288 points puts Alex Smith at QB6 by season’s end. Basically, don’t reach, youngblood!Rob Gronkowski (NE - TE) is TE1 and comes in ranked 20th overall. If you take him prior to the 3rd round, you’re probably reaching to do so because there’s an above 50 percent chance he misses games, and guys like TE2 Kelce (KC - TE)and TE3 Ertz (PHI - TE) could wind up outpacing him. Kelce and Ertz are ranked 32nd and 47th, respectively. Again, don’t reach! You could be drafting your 2nd WR or RB or even your FLEX, which are more important to you over the course of your season.I’m not at all saying you take your QB in the 13th round, your TE in the 14th, you K in the 15th and a D/ST last, but ideally you’ll be one of the last to take each or close to it. It’s also acceptable to take any player you want when they’re the best player available (BPA) according to whatever rankings you have or draft sheet you use.TE7 Evan Engram (NYG - TE) went down with a concussion a few days ago. Should/could this impact his ADP?Marqise Lee (JAX - WR) went down with a really bad knee injury. Who steps up? Rookie Keelan Cole? What did we learn today? Nothing! Perfect.Edit your pre-draft rankings. You can do this by sorting by projected points if you don’t have another resource to use. That said, find another resource to support your rankings!Draft the best running back or wide receiver available, for the most part, during the first several rounds of your draft (and then do it for most of the rest of the rounds as well). Remember that you have to play at least two RB/WRs per week.If a QB or TE falls to you based on the rankings you have during your draft, take them. You can even reach a little! They won’t, so don’t take a QB or TE until after the 7th round as a good guideline.Take your Kicker and D/ST with your final two picks. You can save yourself from being mocked and ridiculed by your friends by doing so.Lastly, have fun and do what makes you happy. Don’t fret about not having the most up to date draft sheet. No one does. For all we know, Andrew Luck will be the Colts leading rusher and Jack Doyle will be the 2nd receiver. Where does it say that on your draft sheet?Colts Debate: Did Frank Reich make the right decision to go for it? The hot question of the week for Colts fans is going to be whether Frank Reich made the right call to go for it on 4th down, late in overtime, with the game tied and the Colts on their own 43 yard line. In this article Youth Al Woods Jersey , Brett Mock and I will argue for each side.Andrew Aziz — It was the right callI believe it was the right decision. It was aggressive, and sometimes aggressive decisions don’t pay off, but they make a positive difference in the long run. If the Eagles weren’t aggressive, they probably don’t win the Super Bowl last year. If the Titans weren’t aggressive against the Eagles in Week 4, they probably don’t come out with a win. The Colts need to adopt an aggressive mindset, because the previous coach never played aggressive football and it not only angered fans, but it cost the Colts some games. The decision was met with criticism (obviously), but the entire football team stood behind and supported their coach and the decision. The players loved the decision and if this move brings this team closer and makes them more united, then I don’t mind sacrificing a game if it means stronger performances in the future. When a team rallies behind their coach, only good things come out of it.I feel that the fans are overlooking the two main issues: the play call and the ensuing Texans play. The play call wasn’t good. Against press coverage, I don’t like Chester Rogers’ chances fihgting for the football. Luck is used to making that throw with TY, so Rogers was essentially thrown into the fire and was expected to make a play that Hilton is used to making. Chester Rogers isn’t TY Hilton, so I thought a swing pass to a running back and making a defender miss in the open field or some sort of crossing pattern (to beat man coverage, which is what the Texans played underneath) would have been a lot more appropriate. Issue number two is the most serious issue and that was the Deandre Hopkins catch and run after the turnover on downs. The Colts struggled mightily defending the pass against the Texans. Hopkins and Will Fuller (before he was injured) absolutely torched the Colts secondary. Even Keke Coutee had a field day against the secondary. In short, the Colts struggled defending the pass. So, with the game on the line, the secondary laid an egg. They allowed a short catch from Hopkins to turn into a 24 yard gain to set up an easy field goal. I love Darius Leonard and he has been a stud through 4 games, but with the game on the line, I don’t want him lined up in the slot covering Deandre Hopkins, one of the best receivers in the game. That’s a mismatch and the Texans exploited that. Deandre Hopkins killing a linebacker in the slot with the game on the line IS THE BIG ISSUE!That was an error on the part of Matt Eberflus and that was the crucial error that costed the Colts the game. Another minor point to add is that a punt doesn’t necessarily end the game. While it definitely makes a tie the more likely outcome, there was a decent chance the Texans could’ve driven down the field to kick a FG to win. At the very worst, they could’ve had a Hail Mary chance. Let’s say the Texans fair catch the ball at the 15 yard line (which makes sense considering Sanchez’s averages) , that would mean that the Texans would have about 20 seconds to drive approximately 47 yards. While it is unlikely that they drive those yards and make a 55 yard field goal, it is possible and it can’t be written off as it has happened plenty of times in recent history. Heck, I’ll never forget the Falcons doing it to the Seahawks in the 2012 WildCard round. They had two timeouts, but the situation was essentially the same and they almost could’ve driven the field and hit the field goal without the timeouts. The drive can be watched here: and by skipping ahead to 2:00:35. Point is, those sort of drives do happen, despite how unlikely they might seem. To recap, I like the fact that we have an aggressive minded head coach who is wiling to make gutsy decisions. I also feel that analysts and fans should focus on the real issue which is the Hopkins 24 yard catch and run after the turnover on downs after he got a juicy matchup in the slot against a linebacker. The play call choice could’ve been better as well. The players loved the decision and so do I!Brett Mock — It was the wrong decisionIt’s important to make it clear that I’m all for aggressive play-calling. I think Frank Reich has set the appropriate tone early in the season going for it on fourth down on numerous occasions. It has been refreshing after Chuck Pagano and Jim Caldwell were both very conservative minded head coaches. I think it establishes the right culture and is good for a young football team.I don’t agree with the decision to go for it on 4th-and-4 on your own 43 yard line with 27 seconds left in a sudden death overtime. The Texans had almost no chance to win the football game after they took their last timeoutbefore the fourth down play. A punt would have pinned them deep in their own territory with no timeouts and a mile to get into field goal range. I get that crazy drives have happened in history but outside of a fluke big play on the boundary or a big play touchdown, the game is over if you punt.Realistically, the only chance the Texans had to win the game is if you go for it and fail. If you do that, you give them the ball with manageable distance to get into field goal range. Once they get the ball at that point on the field, their odds to win the game sky-rocket. It becomes probable that they will win the game. It becomes improbable that your defense gets a stop.Now, should the defense have stopped the Texans from getting into field goal range? Sure. Did anyone actually think they would? I didn’t. The safeties had been playing very loose coverage all day long and underneath routes were easy pickings for Houston. Two of your top cornerbacks were out of the game. The Texans were given the ball with an open playbook and the defense was put in a position to be on its heels. I think a smart coach realizes that the bid to win the game on offense ended when Marcus Johnson dropped the third down pass that hit him in the hands. At that point two outcomes were likely. The most likely outcome was a tie. The second outcome in your favor is forcing the Texans into the same position — playing to win the game against horrible odds. In those situations you might get a bad decision and you have a chance to make a defensive play on the ball. In Texans territory with the field spread out to try to get out of bounds with no timeouts? Now there is something you can work with if you can make a big defensive play.I think completing the 4th and 4 play would still make the odds of a Colts win marginal at best. Going for it and failing is setting up your team to lose.Now, the biggest reason this is the wrong decision isn’t even because of the argument we’re having about what could have happened. The reason this is the wrong decision is because it is reckless to simply give away a game in your own division. Ties are better than losses when it comes down to records, period. It is my belief that this team is better than its record. It is my belief that if the offense can play anywhere close to the way it did in the second half against Houston, this team’s defense has already proven that it can be dangerous. It is my belief that this team still has a fighters chance to get something good going in the second half of the season and can push for a wild card spot. If I’m right, the tie or loss can make a difference. If I’m wrong it doesn’t matter. But if I’m the coach, the front office, I play to “win” by putting my team in the best chance to make a run in the playoffs. The decision against the Texans unnecessarily made the odds of making the playoffs lower. I bet you anything that if this young team fights and claws its way to the playoff bubble and falls just short because of their 4th-and-4 call in overtime against the Texans, the locker room will have a different attitude. But hey, maybe they’ll not win enough games for that to even matter so who cares, right?What is your opinion on the play? Should the Colts have gone for it and the win or should they have punted the ball away and play for the tie? Vote in the poll and comment below.
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